How QuickPlug Match Predictions Work (And What They Cannot Do)

On the QuickPlug Sports Hub you will see a favoured side for upcoming matches. Here is what is behind it, in plain words.

Where the numbers come from

We look at the results of finished matches in the same league: how many goals each team usually scores and concedes. Teams with very few games on record are not predicted at all, because there is not enough information to say anything useful.

The model

We use a well-known statistical method (a Poisson-style model) that turns each team's scoring record into the chance of a home win, a draw or an away win. It also gives the most likely scoreline for the favoured outcome. Home teams get a small boost, because home advantage is real in football.

What it cannot see

• Injuries and suspensions.
• Tactics and recent form changes.
• Weather, travel or motivation.

That is why a prediction is a guide, not a guarantee. Upsets happen every week, and that is part of why football is fun.

How we stay honest

Our Results page shows how earlier predictions turned out, so you can judge for yourself. We only count predictions that were made before kick-off.

A note on betting

Predictions are for fun and information only. Never stake money you cannot afford to lose.

Want to follow the games? Open the Sports Hub.